Class of 2023 QB most likely to start Day 1? Most surprising class? Recruiting roundtable (2024)

As expected, there was some drama during the early signing period. There were some notable flips — and a double flip! — a high-profile non-signing and some late jockeying for spots in the back end of the top 10 in the national rankings.

Ari Wasserman, Grace Raynor, Manny Navarro and Mitch Light of The Athletic’s recruiting staff share their thoughts on some of the most intriguing storylines in the Class of 2023.

Most interesting development of the early signing period

Light: Dante Moore’s flip from Oregon to UCLA. There were rumors that Moore might be looking around — there was some Michigan State talk in early December — but nobody expected UCLA to be too much of a factor … until it was. Moore was committed to a program that has signed 18 blue-chip prospects in the Class of 2023 and ended up at a program that has signed a total of 19 blue-chippers in the last five years. Maybe it was as simple as seeking a team that had a clear path to immediate playing time, with Bo Nix returning to Oregon and UCLA needing to replace Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Whatever the reason, I’m all for spreading the wealth in college football, and I’m looking forward to watching Moore play for Chip Kelly.

Raynor: Cormani McClain’s late drama. I was surprised when McClain, the nation’s No. 2 prospect in the 247Sports Composite, committed to Miami over Florida in October. But when it came time to make it official with the paperwork, McClain’s mother sent out a tweet informing the public that her son would not be signing on the first day of the early signing period. There were rumors that McClain might have been in talks with Deion Sanders at Colorado and Alabama is still very much in the mix.It’s been a windy road, but clarity should be coming soon — he recently announced he will reveal his destination on Jan. 15.

Navarro: Alabama’s return to the top of the recruiting standings with ease. Nick Saban made it a point to his supporters he didn’t like finishing second to Texas A&M in the 2022 cycle. He pointed a finger at Jimbo Fisher and upset some other guys with money when he took shots at NIL collectives. There were retirement rumors. One imagined it might lead to Bama slipping some on the trail. Yet, the Crimson Tide went right back to being the best recruiting machine in the country even after losing two games and just missing a spot in the College Football Playoff. Saban is 71 and he’s still going strong.

Wasserman: The Peyton Bowen saga. We saw two flips in a 24-hour period. When was the last time we saw that? The five-star prospect out of Denton (Texas) Guyer flipped from Notre Dame to Oregon on the first day of the early signing period, but then didn’t sign. The next day, he flipped and picked Oklahoma (though he actually signed with OU the night before). This is the type of recruitment we’ll be writing oral histories about in five years.

Most surprising class

Raynor: Is it a cop-out to say Miami? Hurricanes booster John Ruiz has been at the forefront of name, image and likeness, but Miami still went 5-7 with losses to Texas A&M and Middle Tennessee that didn’t particularly age well. Credit to Mario Cristobal for his work on the recruiting trail, but a top-five class after a losing season with no bowl game — in the ACC, no less — is wild to me, even in the NIL era.

Navarro: Critics knock Florida coach Billy Napier for not finishing with a top-10 ranked class, but those people are not very bright. Of the 20 high school players Florida signed, 18 are blue-chip recruits (11 more than the previous cycle). Only Alabama (96 percent) and Ohio State (95 percent) had a better blue-chip percentage than the Gators’ 90 percent in this cycle. Considering Florida finished 6-7 with losses to Vanderbilt, rival Florida State and the whooping Oregon State put on them in the Las Vegas Bowl, that’s a pretty good haul for Napier. It probably could’ve been a lot worse.

Light: Brent Venables and his staff at Oklahoma deserve a ton of credit for signing what is now a top-five class despite the on-field struggles. The Sooners have signed eight top-100 players, including three five-star prospects. We’ll see how things shake out after signing day in February, but OU is closing in on its first top-five class since 2010.

Wasserman: There was a sentiment that Oklahoma would be set back three years when Lincoln Riley left Norman for USC. That’s not what’s happening here. Oklahoma just signed a better class in Brent Venables’ first year than Lincoln Riley ever signed at Oklahoma, equipped with eight top-100 players. The funniest part? Oklahoma’s class is ranked 10 spots higher than USC’s. If you would have told me that a year ago, I would have called you a liar.

Most disappointing class

Navarro: North Carolina falling out of the top 25 after finishing in the top 15 each of the last three seasons is noteworthy considering Mack Brown seemed to have a good thing going. UNC made it to the ACC title game and Drake Maye will be back at quarterback next season. Yet, the top seven players in the state in the 2023 cycle decided to skip town. UNC signed four of the top seven in-state prospects in the 2022 cycle.

Light: USC landed three five-star prospects in the first month after Lincoln Riley was hired last November but added only one more top-100 player in the ensuing 12 months. They are still in the mix for five-star tight end Duce Robinson and four-star cornerback Rodrick Pleasant (No. 86 overall), but the bottom line is that Riley’s first full class is ranked No. 15 in the nation. That’s not what many of us expected — and yes, I realize USC doesn’t have the most robust NIL plan of attack.

Raynor: Michigan. Jim Harbaugh’s on-again-off-again flirtation with the NFL might have something to do with recruits being hesitant about the Wolverines’ future, but Michigan has made the College Football Playoff in each of the past two years and has now taken down Ohio State in consecutive seasons. The Wolverines currently have the nation’s No. 17 class, their worst since 2018 — despite better on-field results.

Wasserman: Michigan has beaten Ohio State and made the College Football Playoff two years in a row and it just got done signing a class that has zero top-100 players in it. Yes, Michigan landed a solid group of seven transfers, but when is Jim Harbaugh going to really start cooking with his high school recruiting? Maybe never, as he was apparently flirting with the NFL yet again — though he released a statement Thursday in which he said he anticipates being Michigan’s coach in 2023.

Most intriguing five-star

Raynor: Duce Robinson. The five-star Arizona native is the top tight end in the country and is a two-sport athlete who said last week at the Under Armour All-America Game’s media day that he’d like to play both football and baseball professionally. Robinson looked every bit the part of his 6-foot-6, 225 pound frame during practices and should make a quick impact wherever he lands. He’s still weighing the schools he visited officially over the summer: USC, Georgia, Texas and Alabama.

Wasserman: Rueben Owens. The five-star running back of El Campo (Texas) High spent the majority of this cycle committed to Louisville. But when he flipped to Texas A&M late in the process, his decision sparked a little glimmer of hope for an Aggies program that has been largely consumed with bad news in recent months. With the departure of Devon Achane, the Aggies will be looking for a new stud to step in at running back. Owens is the type of prospect who could handle the load immediately. And, after all, running the ball was the one thing that worked for Texas A&M this past year.

Navarro: Arch Manning. Texas already has one No. 1-ranked overall recruit at quarterback in Quinn Ewers, who didn’t exactly set the world on fire as a redshirt freshman. Steve Sarkisian is under some heat heading into Year 3 because TCU is playing in the national championship game after a 5-7 season, and he’s 13-12 after two seasons in Austin. There’s some QB drama right around the corner waiting for us this fall.

Light: I’m fascinated by unsigned athlete Nyckoles Harbor out of Archbishop Carroll in Washington D.C. — both what position he will play (tight end? edge?) and at what school (Maryland? Michigan? South Carolina? Oregon? USC?).

QB most likely to start in Week 1 next year

Light: I’m tempted to go with Jackson Arnold, the five-star Texas native who is headed to Oklahoma, but I think Dante Moore at UCLA is the better choice. The Bruins added Kent State transfer Collin Schlee out of the portal and could return two former four-stars (Ethan Garbers and Justyn Martin) at the position, but Moore is an elite prospect who was recruited to compete for a starting position from Day 1.

Raynor: If Mitch won’t go with Jackson Arnold, I will. (Insert evil laugh here.) Arnold played at the Class 6A level of Texas high school football and is arguably the most prepared quarterback in this class. His film impressed me all season and seeing him throw live at the Under Armour All-America Game practices only confirmed that he’s one of the best passers in the class. He’ll have to beat out incumbent Dillon Gabriel — who announced Thursday that he will return to OU — but Arnold has both the skill set and the moxie to compete with anyone.

Navarro: As the guy who compiled The Athletic’s True Freshman Report this past year, I can say rather confidently I don’t believe any true freshman quarterback will start Week 1. After all, only eight of the 27 blue-chip QBs signed in the 2022 cycle earned a start at all (Clemson’s Cade Klubnik, Texas A&M’s Conner Weigman, Miami’s Jacurri Brown, Vanderbilt’s AJ Swann, Georgia Tech’s Zach Pyron, NC State’s MJ Morris, Kentucky’s Destin Wade and Oklahoma State’s Garrett Rangel) and the first one (Swann) didn’t start until Week 3. That said, I’d give Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava the second-best shot of cracking the starting lineup the fastest behind UCLA’s Dante Moore. Tennessee’s collective didn’t spend all that money for nothing.

Wasserman: Though I wouldn’t be shocked if Manny were right here, there seems to be a fun little competition in Knoxville brewing now that Hendon Hooker is on his way to the NFL. Joe Milton just won the Orange Bowl’s MVP and seems to be the favorite to land the position, but Iamaleava enrolled early and will participate in bowl practice. Between bowl practice and spring football, this five-star stud will have a ton of practices under his belt heading into fall camp. Milton may be the guy, but he seems to have a pretty natural path to the field here.

QB outside the top 100 you are most excited to watch

Wasserman: Is three-star quarterback Zane Flores of Gretna (Neb.) High going to be a player that Nebraska regrets not signing in a few years? Flores, a highly productive QB who led his team to a state championship in Nebraska, is headed to Oklahoma State. His measurables may not jump off the page, but I saw him at the Elite 11, and he looked awesome. Mike Gundy may have stolen a gem here.

Raynor: He’s not technically all that far out of the top 100, but Austin Novosad at No. 119 has my attention. Novosad was the first major recruit to flip to Oregon during the early signing period, having previously been committed to Baylor since December 2021. With Bo Nix returning in 2023, we likely won’t see much of Novosad as a true freshman, but he should have a chance to compete for the starting job in 2024. He finished his senior season at Dripping Springs (Texas) High School with 2,911 yards and 39 touchdowns against just five interceptions. In his three-year high school career, he threw for nearly 9,000 yards.

Light: I think it’s going to be a while until we see him hit the field — either at Ohio State or another school — but I’m intrigued by Lincoln Kienholz, a late-riser from South Dakota who flipped from Washington to sign with the Buckeyes. Kienholz climbed nearly 600 spots in the national rankings from the time of his commitment to Washington (No. 790 in late June) to his current ranking of No. 205.

Navarro: Louisville’s Pierce Clarkson, a four-star ranked No. 213 overall from St. John Bosco in Bellflower, Calif. Jeff Brohm picked up Jack Plummer from Cal through the transfer portal and has a few other experienced quarterbacks on the roster to choose from. But Clarkson, the son of private QB coach Steve Clarkson, is already 19, led one of the best high school programs in the country and competed for playing time with Michigan State Class of 2022 signee Katin Houser in high school. He’s probably as ready to play as any true freshman quarterback would be.

Non-blue-chipper you are keeping an eye on

Navarro: Three-star running back Sedrick Irvin Jr., a South Florida native whose father was a standout at Michigan State for Nick Saban and a fourth-round pick of the Detroit Lions in 1999. Irvinisn’t even the highest-ranked running back in Stanford’s class. Four-star L.J. Martin is. But Irvin, a former Notre Dame commitment who is ranked No. 473 overall by the 247Sports Composite, is one of those smart, team-first players who does what he is supposed to do and helps his team win in a lot of different ways. He ran for 1,050 yards and 10 touchdowns for Miami Columbus’ state championship team as a senior.

Raynor: Three-star wide receiver Santana Fleming. Fleming reported 40-plus offers, including at one point from Oregon, Texas, Florida State, Georgia and Michigan State and seemed headed toward playing for a Power 5 school a couple of summers ago. But he signed with FCS Western Carolina last month. Ranked No. 822 nationally by the 247Sports Composite, the three-star Fleming is the Catamount’s highest-ranked recruit in the modern era, which dates back to 2000. The Fort Lauderdale, Fla., native was also selected to the Under Armour All-America Game this week. What will he look like at Western Carolina? And is this a situation where he can parlay success at the FCS level into a transfer opportunity later?

Light: What does Georgia see in Kyron Jones? The running back from Charlotte, N.C., is ranked No. 650 overall and is one of only two non-blue-chippers (not including a kicker) in the Bulldogs’ 2023 class. He had been committed to NC State but flipped to Georgia just prior to the early signing period. It’s the second straight cycle that Kirby Smart signed a three-star running back. Last year, it was late-riser Andrew Paul from Dallas. Few coaching staffs are better at evaluating talent, so I’m curious to see if Jones (or Paul) ever emerge as a primary ball carrier for the Bulldogs. And by the way, the last three-star running back to sign with Georgia was Brian Herrien in the Class of 2016, and he rushed for 1,413 yards in a solid four-year career in Athens.

Wasserman: A few weeks ago I wrote about three-star quarterback Mack Howard, who signed with Utah. He’s a prospect out of Mississippi who would have gotten some more looks from SEC programs had he waited a little longer in his recruitment, but he fell in love with Utah and stuck with the Utes. He may not play immediately in his career as he develops, but he is the perfect fit for Utah and the type of quarterback I won’t be surprised to see playing in a Rose Bowl in a few years.

(Top photo of Brent Venables: Kevin Jairaj / USA Today)