Mets roster projection: Where does New York stand a week before spring training? (2024)

We’re one week away from pitchers and catchers reporting to Clover Park, and baseball even went ahead and set some rules for the 2021 season on Tuesday. Alas, no Calvinball this year.

Rather than using this space to bicker about conjured runners at second base and truncated doubleheaders, let’s focus on another rule put in place: The active roster this year has been set at 26 players, expanding to 28 in September. Those were supposed to be the rules last season, before the pandemic, which caused the league to expand the active roster to 30 for the season’s first two weeks and 28 for the rest of the season.

A cap on pitchers at 13 that was supposed to take effect in 2020 has again been pushed back; teams can carry as many pitchers as they want, and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Mets prioritized pitching depth and carried 14 pitchers for long stretches of the season. Carrying 14 pitchers on a 26-man roster is similar to carrying 15 on a 28-man roster, which the Mets did more than half the time last season. (Of course, it’s not exactly the same, and the lack of a designated hitter may require a more consistently robust bench than the Mets had at times in 2020.)

All this is to say, the situation, like all of them these days, is fluid. Keep that in mind with this projection of what the Mets roster might look like on Opening Day. It has 13 position players and 13 pitchers, but it can definitely be broken down differently.

In addition to the 26 players on track for the Opening Day active roster, I’ve also included players on New York’s 40-man roster (who are all automatically invited to spring training), non-roster invitees to spring training, and other names of note, many of whom are less “of note” than they are “likelier to be part of major-league spring training than the Mets’ most noteworthy prospects.” That’s right: Spring training is going to be split this year, with a maximum of 75 players in major-league spring training at any time. It isn’t until after that concludes that younger prospects — the strength of New York’s farm system — will report for their own spring training for a season whose start will be delayed accordingly.

Another procedural note: As of yet, since the Mets haven’t officially announced the signings of Albert Almora Jr. and Jonathan Villar, they haven’t had to make the two corresponding moves to their 40-man roster. That means that two people currently listed here as being on the 40-man roster will no longer be relatively soon. That’s probably not great news for catcher Patrick Mazeika and a pitcher like Corey Oswalt, who is out of minor-league options and, at the moment, unlikely to make the Opening Day roster.

Catchers

Opening Day roster (2): James McCann, Tomás Nido
40-man roster (2): Ali Sánchez, Patrick Mazeika
Non-roster invitee (2): Bruce Maxwell, David Rodriguez
Other names of note (2): Nick Meyer, Jose Mena

The Mets moved on McCann rather than wait out J.T. Realmuto behind the plate, signing the veteran to a four-year deal in mid-December. It’s an example of a player getting paid more for what he’s capable of growing into than what his career-long track record suggests, with McCann’s last two seasons in Chicago inspiring bigger dreams. If he can hit the way he has in that sample and frame the way he did last season, he’s a top-10 backstop, if not better, in the sport.

It’s harder to quantify the impact McCann can have on the pitching staff as a batterymate, as he received rave reviews on the south side for his rapport with the rotation.

Nido’s numbers from his too brief 2020 — it was truncated by a bout with COVID-19 starting in August — are propped up by a two-homer, six-RBI game against Washington. Take out that one game, and his .929 OPS drops to .618 for the season, but taking out the best game from a seven-game sample would make the ’86 World Series look a lot different, too.

There isn’t a lot of depth behind that pair. Sánchez got some major-league run last year, but he doesn’t even have Nido’s minor-league track record offensively. Mazeika’s progress with the bat has stalled since moving to Double A in 2018. Maxwell is the only other catcher currently in the organization with major-league experience. Somewhere René Rivera is waiting anxiously to click “Confirm” on a spring training housing option in Port St. Lucie.

Infielders

Opening Day roster (6): Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil, Francisco Lindor, J.D. Davis, Luis Guillorme, Jonathan Villar
40-man roster (0): None
Non-roster invitee (4): José Peraza, Wilfredo Tovar, Jake Hager, Luis Carpio
Other names of note (6): Brandon Drury, Will Toffey, Blake Tiberi, Carlos Cortes, Drew Jackson, Jeremy Vasquez

One can look forlornly to other sections of this list and lament the absent names — no Realmuto, no George Springer, no Trevor Bauer, not even a Liam Hendriks — or one can focus here at Lindor and realize the Mets made the largest single addition of any baseball team this winter. Lindor is the best position player the Mets have had since David Wright was in his prime, and he has the potential to very quickly become the greatest shortstop the club has ever had. It’s a transformative addition, provided he and the Mets agree to a longer-term arrangement.

Robinson Canó’s absence on this list isn’t as lamented as others; his year-long suspension means McNeil might actually play the infield for real after two consecutive years of broken promises. It’ll be worth monitoring how being on the dirt consistently affects McNeil’s health: Life at the keystone is generally tougher on an everyday basis than patrolling a corner outfield spot, but New York has in the past claimed the extra running in the outfield wore on McNeil’s legs. (New York has also in the past claimed McNeil was only a second baseman, so you know, things change.)

Without a DH, Alonso returns to regular action at first base, where his defense is more of a question mark again after such little time there a season ago. Davis made several nice plays at third base in his first week back at the hot corner in 2020, and then proceeded to be ranked the worst glove at the position in the majors by Statcast the rest of the way. Combine that with flagging production at the plate in 2020, and Davis’ hold on a starting role is more tenuous than anyone else currently pegged for the everyday lineup.

Villar is the team’s most recent addition, capable of playing second, short and even center field and stealing several dozen bases given regular playing time. When he hits even close to the league average, he’s a quite productive player; he was worth more than four wins above replacement in 2019 with the Orioles. That said, the switch-hitting Villar runs the “Office Space” what-would-you-say-you-do-here risk if he’s not getting on base enough to capitalize on his speed, given that his relatively subpar glove doesn’t make up for the offense.

Guillorme’s glove is good enough to make up for most offensive shortcomings. Ironically, his biggest weakness with this roster might be what would elsewhere be a strength: hitting left-handed as an up-the-middle infielder. Guillorme was outstanding in limited playing time in 2020, with an .865 OPS over 68 plate appearances. He doesn’t need to do that much with the stick, but he needs to do something with it for longer to merit consideration for a role beyond utility.

The depth here isn’t all that inspiring, with Peraza and Drury having the most big-league experience. Cortes may be able to throw with both arms, but it’s his bat that’ll have to carry him. Cortes has absolutely raked while playing this winter in the Australian Baseball League, permitting the thought that his offense can carry him to major-league usefulness to persist into another year.

Outfielders

Opening Day roster (5): Michael Conforto, Brandon Nimmo, Dominic Smith, Albert Almora Jr., José Martínez
40-man roster (1): Guillermo Heredia
Non-roster invitee (2): Mallex Smith, Johneshwy Fargas
Other names of note (4): Drew Ferguson, Quinn Brodey, Tim Tebow, Jake Mangum

For the third straight year, the Mets entered the offseason saying they want to acquire a center fielder who would allow Nimmo to move to left field. And for the third straight year, they’ve acquired a defensively skilled but offensively limited center fielder who is not good enough to bump Nimmo out of everyday action in center.

Major League Baseball’s uncertainty on the DH played a role in New York’s change of plans; it’s a lot harder to get Jackie Bradley Jr. to come to Queens if he’s not sure he’s playing every day. Still, a last-second change of rules would benefit the Mets as much as any other team, allowing Nimmo to play left, Smith to play first and Alonso to DH on most nights.

All that said, here’s something oft-overlooked when it comes to the Mets outfield: It’s one of the sport’s best anyway. New York’s outfielders, Nimmo and Smith included, have hit enough to mask their defensive deficiencies, and the Mets led all of baseball in wins above replacement from their outfield last season (granted, with the help of McNeil in left).

Almora is that new part-time center fielder this year, and he’s got both a higher ceiling and lower floor than previous iterations of the archetype Keon Broxton and Jake Marisnick. Almora was once drafted sixth overall and will play this season at 27; conversely, his on-base percentage is a tick below .300 over the last three seasons, and his Baseball-Reference “most similar by age” has shifted from Bobby Bonilla at 24 to Derek Bell at 25 to Lastings Milledge at 26. That’s the Robert Andino triptych as represented by a complicated statistical formula, though perhaps Mets fans don’t see it as the same negative trend given their own experiences with those three comps.

Almora supplants Heredia as Nimmo’s right-handed defensive caddy, with Mallex Smith a left-handed version (with 80-grade speed) waiting off the 40-man. Fargas hit for a cycle last spring training and then just after that the world became a fundamentally different place, which is the kind of thing I’d joke with him about if I were ever allowed near him again.

Martínez is here nominally listed as an outfielder, but his main job is going to be mashing lefties in the occasional start and the frequent pinch-hit appearance. That skill set makes him a luxury the Mets might not be able to carry if they need an extra pitcher on the roster.

Among the names of note, Ferguson, a minor-league Rule 5 pickup, can catch the ball in center and get on base, which are always two good qualities to have.

Starting Pitchers

Opening Day roster (5): Jacob deGrom, Carlos Carrasco, Marcus Stroman, David Peterson, Joey Lucchesi
Opening Day IL (1): Noah Syndergaard
40-man roster (4): Jordan Yamamoto, Franklyn Kilomé, Corey Oswalt, Thomas Szapucki
Non-roster invitee (3): Jerad Eickhoff, Harol Gonzalez, Oscar De La Cruz
Other names of note (3): Justin Dillon, Tylor Megill, Tony Dibrell

This is probably the likeliest area to change between now and the start of spring training. The Mets can go into spring training with Peterson and Lucchesi as part of the Opening Day rotation, but their preference, revealed rather glaringly in their nine-figure offer to Bauer, is to add another veteran arm to the mix. Doing so would create a spring competition between Peterson and Lucchesi for a spot that would, ideally, eventually go to Syndergaard upon his return from Tommy John surgery.

New York has done a solid job in building decent and optionable depth behind its rotation stalwarts. Peterson, Lucchesi and Yamamoto all possess minor-league options, so they can float between the minors and majors when needed. Kilomé should be granted a rare fourth option due to a service time technicality, though that hasn’t officially happened yet. Oswalt is out of options, which is why his 40-man spot is more in jeopardy. It would be nice for the 2021 Mets if that group really stepped up; it might be even nicer for the 2022 Mets, what with Stroman and Syndergaard slated for free agency.

There are several other pitchers I’ve classified as relievers who could eventually play into the starting mix. You’re not gonna believe this, but Seth Lugo is one of them. In a world of flux, it’s comforting to have the old standby debates.

Relief Pitchers

Opening Day roster (8): Edwin Díaz, Trevor May, Seth Lugo, Jeurys Familia, Dellin Betances, Miguel Castro, Aaron Loup, Brad Brach
40-man roster (8): Robert Gsellman, Daniel Zamora, Drew Smith, Sean Reid-Foley, Yennsy Díaz, Sam McWilliams, Jacob Barnes, Stephen Tarpley
Non-roster invitee (3): Jerry Blevins, Arodys Vizcaíno, Tom Windle
Other Names of Note (2): Trevor Hildenberger, Ryley Gilliam

Despite later dabbling with some bigger names, the Mets’ biggest bullpen addition remains May, whom they signed in December and they hope helps them come October. Díaz was significantly better in his second season with New York than his first, even if he didn’t convert saves at the percentage you’d like. A late-game mix of Lugo, May and Díaz should work relatively well (even if there are probably more inventive ways to use Lugo than as a standard set-up man).

How creative the Mets can get with Lugo hinges on who else steps up in that pen. They’re still hoping for Familia, Betances and Brach to be closer to their 2016 selves than they’ve been the last two years, but they’d definitely compromise at their 2018 selves. Castro has promising stuff but pedestrian results and a track record of double-digit walk rates.

As with their starters, the Mets have built a nice group of optionable relievers. That dynamic isn’t necessarily new, originating in the great 2017 tradeoff of major-league talent for intriguing minor-league arms. Drew Smith is basically all that’s left from those deals, and he might have the highest ceiling in this group. McWilliams was signed to a big-league deal despite not yet reaching the show, with New York’s interest piqued by how his repertoire can play up in relief. Barnes, Blevins and Vizcaíno would all gladly return to their 2016 results, as well, for what it’s worth.

(Photo of Jacob deGrom: Rich Schultz / Getty Images)